A video delivery service may provide videos of media programs that include advertising breaks inserted within the videos being delivered to client devices. The video delivery service may offer a great variety of media programs, such as newly-released episodes of serial shows, movies, and other types of media programs. Advertisers would like to have their advertisements (ads) shown to target audiences, such as young adult users. An ad targeting service may be used to determine when to insert a targeted ad for an advertiser based on characteristics determined for the users.
Future video views estimation is a critical part of an ad targeting service. To fulfill an advertiser's requirements, such as displaying a certain kind of advertisements when it is determined the target audience, such as young adult users, are watching the video, the ad targeting service has to estimate the number of ad impressions for the future. Third party agencies may monitor and measure the number of advertisements shown to users every day. This estimate is then used to sell a number of future ad slots to advertisements. During operation, if the actual number of views of the advertiser's ad does not match the advertisers' requirements on time or numbers, advertisers may reduce future contracts with the video delivery service in the future. To maximize the income for the video delivery service, the video delivery service has to predict the number of future video views precisely and sign as many contracts as possible.